Nathaniel Bier

Writing

Where I think things through at length, from academic research to a sports betting Substack.

  1. 01Behavioural Biases and Irrational Decision-Making in Sports Betting Curieux Academic Journal Tested whether bettors undervalue and sportsbooks underprice psychologically unfavourable results, using data scraped from 1,900 Premier League matches.

    Sports betting is a cleaner test of behavioural biases than financial markets, because every bet either pays out or it doesn’t. I compared the returns implied by bet365’s pre-match odds with actual results across 1,900 Premier League matches from 2020/21 to 2024/25, then tested subsets of teams for the favourite-longshot, confirmation and overconfidence biases.

    Backing longshots lost more than twice as much as backing favourites, 6.9% per bet against 2.9%: the favourite-longshot bias, showing up in one of the most heavily bet markets in the world.

    Average return per unit staked, 2020/21–2024/25
    Favourites−2.9%
    Longshots−6.9%
    Draws−8.1%
  2. 02
    Against the Spread Substack

    Tracking and posting my bets and theses, now branching out from football into the NBA and NFL, mostly with same-game parlays and a few longshots and outrights sprinkled in.

    I’ve been sports betting for years, but I started Against the Spread to keep myself honest. Writing down why I chose a bet before the match, not after it, stops me from writing off a loss as a bad beat, or passing off a fluke as foresight.

    Most of what I post are parlays priced at around even money or a little over, built mostly from legs I think the books have mispriced. The stakes are small because I’m more focused on the process than the profit.

  3. 03

    The Chronicle

    Editor

    Edited and wrote for Eton’s main and oldest school publication.

    The Chronicle has been running for more than 160 years. As an editor, I commissioned and edited pieces across every section, working with 30 writers and designers to hit monthly deadlines. My own pieces covered school politics and interviews with senior leadership.

  4. 04

    The Dugout

    Founder

    Founded a school sports magazine in 2023 and hosted live discussions and debates.

    I started The Dugout because there was nowhere at school to write about sport seriously. In our quarterly issues, contributors wrote about everything from football tactics and match analysis to the business side of sport.

    Alongside the magazine, I hosted live debates with panels of guest speakers and other students, on questions like whether betting sponsorship should be banned, the role of the Saudi Pro League in the transfer market and who the greatest footballer of all time is.